What if a particular problem, that is coming our way, presented no easy solutions? What if we decided to ignore the problem until it became impossible to ignore. Some would argue that our reliance on oil is such a problem and that we are collectively in denial. Peak oil and dwindling supplies of oil (oil descent) is the problem that I am referring to.
The following is an excerpt from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil’s website:
“It is not only the climate that requires that we change our means of transport. The oil crisis will soon be the foremost reason for rearranging traffic flows. The researchers are discussing ‘The Oil Peak,’ i.e. when the breaking point is reached and it becomes too expensive to extract oil. But it does not matter if this happens in 2020 or 2030. It is soon and before this we must change our method of being transported.Today, oil is produced on land, in coastal regions and in deep water – when something happens in deep water it immediately becomes a very difficult situation. Now that this accident [catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico] has happened we can see clearly the sorts of problems that can occur. All this is due to the fact that our way-of-life is driving demand at the same time as the oil on land has reached maximum production and is now steadily decreasing, says [ASPO President] Kjell Aleklett.”http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/peak-oil-and-the-catastrophe-in-the-gulf-of-mexico
In another section of the ASPO website the following thoughts were offered:
“The peak of oil discovery was passed in the 1960s, and the world started using more than was found in new fields in 1981. The gap between discovery and production has widened since. Many countries, including some important producers, have already passed their peak, suggesting that the world peak of production is now imminent. Were valid data available in the public domain, it would be a simple matter to determine both the date of peak and the rate of subsequent decline, but as it is, we find a maze of conflicting information, ambiguous definitions and lax reporting procedures. In short, the oil companies tended to report cautiously, being subject to strict Stock Exchange rules, whereas certain OPEC countries exaggerated during the 1980s when they were competing for quota based on reported reserves. Despite the uncertainties of detail, it is now evident that the world faces the dawn of the Second Half of the Age of Oil, when this critical commodity, which plays such a fundamental part in the modern economy, heads into decline due to natural depletion. A debate rages over the precise date of peak, but rather misses the point, when what matters — and matters greatly — is the vision of the long remorseless decline that comes into sight on the other side of it. The transition to decline threatens to be a time of great international tension. Petroleum Man will be virtually extinct this Century and Homo Sapien faces a major challenge in adapting to his loss. Peak Oil is by all means an important subject.” http://www.peakoil.net/about-peak-oil
Well, the last drop of oil is out there somewhere, and while it is impossible to pinpoint an exact date for peak oil, what is more germane to the discussion is that we need to start considering what we can do to help ourselves through the transition out of oil dependency. It is also important for each of us to become informed citizens and consumers; just because our government is not sounding the alarm does not mean that there is no problem. Just because we are not being forced to change our consumer-based activities does not mean that we should wait to make changes. I have provided you with a few links that will provide you with the most current information available about peak oil – take an hour out of your schedule to bring yourself up-to-speed.
The problem has been identified, ideas are being floated and people are looking around for alternate sources of energy. In the meantime, we can become part of the solutions that we seek – we can begin acting now so that we are resilient later.
There are many problems that seem too big for us to manage or change. But change does occur through the efforts of individuals, groups and/or communities. One approach to change is being demonstrated by communities that have become involved in Transition Initiatives. These initiatives exist globally and there are two examples in the Pacific Northwest: one on Whidbey Island (where I live) and another in Northeast Seattle. The Transition Initiative movement argues that while we are focusing our efforts on reducing our reliance on oil as a primary source for energy, we must also be rebuilding resilience into our daily lives. What does this mean? For communities, this refers to “their ability to not collapse at first sight of oil or food shortages, and to their ability to respond with adaptability to disturbance.” In order to create this sort of resilience changes must occur at the grassroots level.
The Transition Initiative is based upon the idea of re-building communities so that they have resilience. Here resilience “refers to the ability of a system, from individual people to whole economies, to hold together and maintain their ability to function in the face of change and shocks from the outside.” The recent global economic shock demonstrated the extent to which resilience was either missing or in various states of decay.
A key question that the Transition Initiative asks is not “how can we keep everything going as it is, but rather, how can we learn to live within realistic energy constraints?” Unpacking the answer(s) to this question will be different for people living in different regions but one potent variable is learning to adapt to a bioregional environmental model.
The Transition Initiative is a new grassroot’s, place-based movement. At the center of the Transition Initiative is an engagement with energy, how it is generated and how we use it in our day-to-day lives. The idea of peak oil and oil descent is acknowledged and kept on the agenda as a reminder and motivator for the changes that need to occur. Changes take place in order to prepare us, and those who follow behind us, for the transition away from dependence on the planet’s shrinking supplies of oil.
The Transition’s creator, Rob Hopkins, launched the first Initiative, Transition Town Totes, in 2006. Since then, Transition Initiatives have been forming across the planet. I am also new to the Transition Initiative. I first learned of this movement about eighteen months ago and became intrigued not only because of its place-based emphasis on promoting the use of local venues for products and services, and its core drive for creating resilience, I am also intrigued by the Transition Initiative’s swift spread across the planet. It is apparent that this is an idea (which is based upon bioregionalism) whose time has come. People are becoming increasingly interested in a new paradigm for living - one that shifts away from an over-reliance on imported commodities.
Bioregionalism is a place-based environmental model whose overarching framework includes, among other things, conservation, stability, self-sufficiency and cooperation (Devon Pena, 2005). The Transition Initiative has as its goal the creation of a localized, place-based economically and environmentally minded collectivity that begins as a core group of committed individuals. This group begins cultivating relationships with members in their immediate community through town-hall type meetings in order to generate interest and cultivate relationships. New members to the initiative identify, with the guidance of the core group, a myriad of projects. These are not spearheaded by the group but by the people that have responded to the Initiative. Eventually, the core group dissolves into the Transition Group, remaining active as key players in a growing concern. Cohesiveness of the group is sustained through monthly gatherings.
The Transition Initiative is an intriguing vehicle for change. I will be exploring it in the coming months through first-person interviews with core-group members and others who have become actively engaged with this movement, and by immersing myself in the Transition Initiative
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